Fredi9999 Tracker

Real-time positions and trades of the Polymarket gigawhale

11/6 Update: Fredi netted around $55 million in what had to be the biggest prediction market win of all time. Félicitations!

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11/3 Update: Fredi Tracker is once again live! Alas, the fine Frenchman (interviewed pseudonsymously by WSJ earlier this week) now finds himself down bad - to the tune of $6 million - following Trump’s steep, sudden slip in the market odds. Scroll down for Monsieur Superbaleine’s latest activity…

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We’re tracking the real-time trading activity of the mysterious trader making unprecedently enormous bets on Donald Trump on Polymarket. (Combines the activity of the five accounts presumed to be under common control: Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, Theo4, Michie, and RepTrump¹).

Check out our deeper dive into RepTrump and why we’re pretty sure he’s a Fredi, even though no one else is tracking him. The NYT earlier reported that Polymarket has confirmed the four originally reported accounts are controlled by “a French national with ‘extensive trading experience and a financial services background.’”

So is the Fredi cabal run by a true believer who thinks Trump is underpriced? An insider with access to internal polls or other non-public info? Someone hedging large expected losses associated with a Trump win? A manipulator trying to influence public perception of Trump’s strength? Or someone trying to prop up the price of DJT 0.00%↑ (which more than tripled during Fredi’s active period)?

DJT stock price, via Google Finance

Drop your theories in the comments.

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1. We added the RepTrump account to our roster of presumed Freddi alts on Oct. 22. All data is retroactive to the account’s full trading history.