Is "RepTrump" Part of the Pro-Trump Polymarket Whale Pod or Not?
Yes
We think so, anyway. Since coming on the scene a few days ago, RepTrump has amassed a $6+ million portfolio of pro-Trump bets on Polymarket.
Yes, that’s a small portion of the Fredi9999 cabal’s overall holdings, but it’s already surpassed Michie and is about to catch PrincessCaro (two of Fredi’s more broadly acknowledged alt accounts).
This tally is borrowed from our Fredi Tracker, which you should bookmark and refresh now and then to gawk at our visualizations of the legendary and swelling audacity of his position.
It was reader
that first tipped us to RepTrump and the fact that his funding source and trading patterns that seemed to align well with the other Fredis. However, Jorge (and we) second-guessed adding him to the roster when it became clear that he differed in one key respect: he was a night owl (at least if he’s based in France, as we believe Fredi to be).No other account in the cabal ever deposited funds after 5 pm GMT, but that’s primarily when RepTrump starts feeling frisky.
As we noted on X, that doesn’t mean he’s not part of the same entity. It could be that whoever’s running this $50 million (and counting) book has got someone in the western hemisphere running things for him after civilzed European hours. (Polymarket never sleeps, after all.)
But it got us wondering if RepTrump’s trade activity was similarly incongruent with the known Fredis. If so, it would be incrementally suggestive that this is just some other deep-pocketed Trump backer, and less likely under common control by the gigawhale.
Instead, we found the opposite. Well, not the opposite. But we didn’t find it incongruent.
The two biggest markets Fredi plays in are Trump to win the election and Trump to win the popular vote.
Below are plots of the 4 well-presumed Fredi accounts’ trade timestamps and prices alongside RepTrump’s in those two markets.
(They’re a little hard to see, but you can click the images to make them full-screen or play with interactive versions here and here.)
Not only are RepTrump’s (in blue) trades not incongruous with Fredi & Co’s, they often swap back and forth from one to the other, particularly with Theo4 yesterday. One often takes over when the other one stops trading.
This back-and-forth handoff tactic is seen throughout the known Fredis’ trading activity before the arrival of RepTrump too (but you’ll have to click the interactive versions to see that).
This all may not be earth-shatteringly incremental rationale to convince a RepTrump-skeptic that he’s a legit Friend of Fredi, but it certainly offers us no new reason to doubt it. And it throws plenty of cold water on the counter-thesis that he operates at times of day that Fredi likes to be offline.
There’s another possible-to-likely Fredi alt out there too, but it hasn’t traded enough to move the needle yet. We’ll keep an eye on it and add it to the tracker if it continues to hew to the Fredi stylebook and grows into something a little more worthy of formal Fredi & Co membership.
It’s also possible that smaller traders like these are simply Fredi copycats, registering new accounts, depositing a heap of money, then buying into the exact Fredi portfolio, in hopes that he’ll continue to big it ever higher.