Who's following whom?
Can you compare Polymarket with Betfair?
Sure. I think you'll see a much more pronounced lag.
See update above. No noticeable lag either way.
there’s no incentive to close a ~3c arb because predictit’s fees would make that a guaranteed loss
This 3c spread is between Kalshi and Polymarket. No fee-driven distortion similar to PredictIt's 10% profit fee.
Can you compare Polymarket with Betfair?
Sure. I think you'll see a much more pronounced lag.
See update above. No noticeable lag either way.
there’s no incentive to close a ~3c arb because predictit’s fees would make that a guaranteed loss
This 3c spread is between Kalshi and Polymarket. No fee-driven distortion similar to PredictIt's 10% profit fee.