Love this. It would be nice to have the current probabilities in larg(er) text near the top. If it's the main takeaway from the page it's weird to have it be relatively unemphasized.
Weighting by money volume makes total sense. What I don't understand is how you weight Mannifold, Silver and Metacalculus. There is no money, and Silver seems especially out of place.
Love this. It would be nice to have the current probabilities in larg(er) text near the top. If it's the main takeaway from the page it's weird to have it be relatively unemphasized.
Good point. Will add this.
Great resource. The chart should probably default to all time view, not the 24h.
Thanks! The all-time chart takes a bit longer to load, so we let users click that before fetching all the data.
How is this calculated? When I try to do an average I get 54.8% Trump vs your 56.3% on 10/18/24.
(59.9+57.9+57.5+56.5+56+53.9+51.6+50+49.7)/9=54.8%
Ours is a weighted average, based on real-money, volume, market microstructure, and other factors.
Weighting by money volume makes total sense. What I don't understand is how you weight Mannifold, Silver and Metacalculus. There is no money, and Silver seems especially out of place.