I’m not plugging IBKR because their platform is the worst ever, but I think it will prove to be the most accurate prediction product because it’s legal for US residents and for the tax benefit. I think the “sharp” money will come from within the US and no one can wisely use Polymarket or Kalshi unless they want to break the law and hide income from IRS.
It would be stupid to bet on a coin flip and pay taxes every time you win, but not be able to write off the losses when you lose.
Kalshi states that they don’t report to IRS but that is only helpful if you want break the law with IRS. Someone betting substantial money from within the US won’t do this.
Why is the Interactive brokers product not included? It’s the only one that legally allows US residents to use and losses can be deducted on tax returns. This is huge for non-professional gamblers.
Love this. It would be nice to have the current probabilities in larg(er) text near the top. If it's the main takeaway from the page it's weird to have it be relatively unemphasized.
Weighting by money volume makes total sense. What I don't understand is how you weight Mannifold, Silver and Metacalculus. There is no money, and Silver seems especially out of place.
I’m not plugging IBKR because their platform is the worst ever, but I think it will prove to be the most accurate prediction product because it’s legal for US residents and for the tax benefit. I think the “sharp” money will come from within the US and no one can wisely use Polymarket or Kalshi unless they want to break the law and hide income from IRS.
It would be stupid to bet on a coin flip and pay taxes every time you win, but not be able to write off the losses when you lose.
Kalshi states that they don’t report to IRS but that is only helpful if you want break the law with IRS. Someone betting substantial money from within the US won’t do this.
Predictit is legal in the US, no?
Predictit is indeed legal but have very small betting limits, I think $800, and they do report to IRS. Winnings are treated as gambling winnings.
The play money markets favor Harris, the Wild West platforms favor Trump, regulated markets in the middle. Wat means?
To see IBKR, I have to use Datawrapper, it is not on my main screen
Strange. What kind of device/browser? If you can post a screenshot, we'll see if we can fix that.
Sorry, I did not see it!
Why is the Interactive brokers product not included? It’s the only one that legally allows US residents to use and losses can be deducted on tax returns. This is huge for non-professional gamblers.
IBKR? Is it not there?
Love this. It would be nice to have the current probabilities in larg(er) text near the top. If it's the main takeaway from the page it's weird to have it be relatively unemphasized.
Good point. Will add this.
Great resource. The chart should probably default to all time view, not the 24h.
Thanks! The all-time chart takes a bit longer to load, so we let users click that before fetching all the data.
How is this calculated? When I try to do an average I get 54.8% Trump vs your 56.3% on 10/18/24.
(59.9+57.9+57.5+56.5+56+53.9+51.6+50+49.7)/9=54.8%
Ours is a weighted average, based on real-money, volume, market microstructure, and other factors.
Weighting by money volume makes total sense. What I don't understand is how you weight Mannifold, Silver and Metacalculus. There is no money, and Silver seems especially out of place.