Can you share a bit more about your methodology? Is it just an average of all the markets you include? Weighted average? If so, by what? How do you decide which markets to include? Why is Nate Silver's polls/fundamentals-based model listed as a part of your aggregate for the presidential forecast if this is a market-based prediction?
It's a weighted average. We don't publish our precise weights, but broadly speaking, our weighting favors (in descending importance):
- Real money
- High volume
- Low fees
- Market microstructure (e.g. narrow ticks)
So play-money markets (like Manifold) and non-markets (like Metaculus and Silver) receive the smallest weights.
Silver is included such that we have a soupcon of fundamentals, to act as a bit of a counterweight when markets get temporarily wonky (as they may be doing under the weight of the fredi9999 activity).
Can you share a bit more about your methodology? Is it just an average of all the markets you include? Weighted average? If so, by what? How do you decide which markets to include? Why is Nate Silver's polls/fundamentals-based model listed as a part of your aggregate for the presidential forecast if this is a market-based prediction?
It's a weighted average. We don't publish our precise weights, but broadly speaking, our weighting favors (in descending importance):
- Real money
- High volume
- Low fees
- Market microstructure (e.g. narrow ticks)
So play-money markets (like Manifold) and non-markets (like Metaculus and Silver) receive the smallest weights.
Silver is included such that we have a soupcon of fundamentals, to act as a bit of a counterweight when markets get temporarily wonky (as they may be doing under the weight of the fredi9999 activity).