In your counterargument for option #1, there is one piece of data that’s missing: how recent are these RCP polls?
The theory is that the Selzer poll suggests a recent shift towards Harris in the Midwest. This is only disproven by your RCP logic if those averages come from very recent polls, right? (I don’t know the answer. I’m just saying that we can’t evaluate this counterargument without that piece of information.)
Freddi ran out of money and the people who dont want the money to sit around from their bankrolls for weeks entered the picture. this was insanely obvious
Do you agree that betting markets, like financial markets, almost always overshoot the mark in reaction to out-of-consensus news (or exogenous shocks in general)? If so, wouldn’t that add a degree of irrationality to markets? My view is yes to both, but perhaps I’m conditioned to think this way given my experience in trading illiquid small caps. Just my $.02
In your counterargument for option #1, there is one piece of data that’s missing: how recent are these RCP polls?
The theory is that the Selzer poll suggests a recent shift towards Harris in the Midwest. This is only disproven by your RCP logic if those averages come from very recent polls, right? (I don’t know the answer. I’m just saying that we can’t evaluate this counterargument without that piece of information.)
well, someone was just calling for a gop sweep <2 weeks ago.
only 1 thing is for sure regardless of odds...retrospective attribution on why xyz worked or didnt work.
Freddi ran out of money and the people who dont want the money to sit around from their bankrolls for weeks entered the picture. this was insanely obvious
Wasn't it just reversion to the polls after being distorted by some big square bets?
How do you measure "equilibrium" in this market? Meaning do you know if there are asks that are unfulfilled?
Do you agree that betting markets, like financial markets, almost always overshoot the mark in reaction to out-of-consensus news (or exogenous shocks in general)? If so, wouldn’t that add a degree of irrationality to markets? My view is yes to both, but perhaps I’m conditioned to think this way given my experience in trading illiquid small caps. Just my $.02