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Trump Chaos Index
Quantifying the policy uncertainty of Trump's 2nd term
Nov 27
•
Flip Pidot
5
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Trump Chaos Index
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2
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U.S. Presidential Winner
Oct 20
12
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U.S. Presidential Winner
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16
So What's it Going To Be?
Nov 5
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Harry Crane
12
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So What's it Going To Be?
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Election Day SuperVision
Nov 5
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The Super Model
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Election Day SuperVision
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Fredi9999 Tracker
Oct 19
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Flip Pidot
15
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Fredi9999 Tracker
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13
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Speaker of the House
The finest indicator of who'll be the 1st elected Speaker of the 119th Congress
Dec 19
•
The Super Model
2
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Speaker of the House
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Guest interview: Flip Pidot
On the past, present, and future of prediction markets
Published on Authentic Intelligence
•
Dec 17
Interview with Harry Crane
2024's top presidential handicapper spills his secrets
Dec 4
•
The Super Model
,
Flip Pidot
, and
Harry Crane
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31:07
The Wages of Election Modeling: Harry Crane vs. Super Model
Putting forecasters to the test by simulating the gains (or losses) you'd make trading their recommendations on Polymarket every day
Nov 22
•
Flip Pidot
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The Wages of Election Modeling: Harry Crane vs. Super Model
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The Wages of Election Modeling: Manifold vs. Metaculus
Putting forecasters to the test by simulating the gains (or losses) you'd make trading their recommendations on Polymarket every day
Nov 19
•
Flip Pidot
3
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The Wages of Election Modeling: Manifold vs. Metaculus
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Market Aggregates
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Speaker of the House
The finest indicator of who'll be the 1st elected Speaker of the 119th Congress
Dec 19
•
The Super Model
2
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Speaker of the House
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U.S. Cabinet
The finest (early) indicators of which of Trump's picks will be confirmed (or slipped in via recess appointments)
Nov 16
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The Super Model
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U.S. Cabinet
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Senate Majority Leader
The finest indicator of who'll lead the upper chamber of the 119th Congress
Nov 11
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Senate Majority Leader
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U.S. Presidential Winner
The finest indicator of who'll be POTUS 47
Oct 20
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U.S. Presidential Winner
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16
House Majority Winner
The finest indicator of who'll lead the lower chamber in the 119th Congress
Oct 19
•
The Super Model
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House Majority Winner
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