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November 2024

Trump Chaos Index
Quantifying the policy uncertainty of Trump's 2nd term
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Flip Pidot
2
The Wages of Election Modeling: Harry Crane vs. Super Model
Putting forecasters to the test by simulating the gains (or losses) you'd make trading their recommendations on Polymarket every day
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Flip Pidot
The Wages of Election Modeling: Manifold vs. Metaculus
Putting forecasters to the test by simulating the gains (or losses) you'd make trading their recommendations on Polymarket every day
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Flip Pidot
The Wages of Election Modeling: 538 vs. DDHQ
Putting forecasters to the test by simulating the gains (or losses) you'd make trading their recommendations on Polymarket every day
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Flip Pidot
The Wages of Election Modeling: Silver vs. the 13 Keys
Putting forecasters to the test by simulating the gains (or losses) you'd make trading their recommendations on Polymarket every day
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Flip Pidot
1
U.S. Cabinet
The finest (early) indicators of which of Trump's picks will be confirmed (or slipped in via recess appointments)
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The Super Model
Senate Majority Leader
The finest indicator of who'll lead the upper chamber of the 119th Congress
House of Pain
Which markets did least poorly in the hardest call of the cycle?
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The Super Model
What's Next?
The Super Model's trial run was pretty successful. Now the real fun begins.
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The Super Model
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